With just three rounds remaining in Super Rugby Pacific, there is still plenty that can happen in the playoff race.

The top four teams at the end of the regular season will earn a coveted home quarter-final, while teams 5-8 will have to secure an upset quarter-final win away from home to advance to the final four.

Former Samoan first-five and veteran rugby journalist Campbell Burnes runs his eyes across the various permutations for each team as we get down to the crunch time of the season. 

Blues

Current position: 1
Current points: 45
Remaining matches:
Reds (h)
Brumbies (a)
Waratahs (a)
Possible maximum points: 60
Likely finish: 1

The Blues, on a 10-match tear, could yet lose their top qualifier status, but only if the Brumbies can beat both them and the Crusaders in the next two rounds. If the Brumbies lose to the Crusaders this weekend, then prepare for the Blues to hold home advantage through the playoffs.


Brumbies

Current position: 2
Current points: 43
Remaining matches:
Crusaders (h)
Blues (h)
Moana Pasifika (a)
Possible maximum points: 58
Likely finish: 2

The Brumbies can just about book in a home quarter-final, but how they hit the playoffs may depend on how they front against the big gun Crusaders and Blues in the next two rounds.
They are clearly the best of the Australian sides, and have now won three straight against Kiwi opposition.


Crusaders

Current position: 3
Current points: 39
Remaining matches:
Brumbies (a)
Drua (h)
Reds (h)
Possible maximum points: 54
Likely finish: 3

We see the Crusaders as holding third, but they will have designs on second. That will hinge on how they fare against the Brumbies in Canberra this Saturday. Despite not firing on all cylinders offensively, they are well poised to seize momentum heading into the playoffs.

Chiefs

Current position: 4
Current points: 32
Remaining matches:
Rebels (a)
Force (h)
Drua (a)
Possible maximum points: 47
Likely finish: 4

The Chiefs are in a solid position and, with a favourable draw, could well rack up a maximum 15 points from their final three regular season outings. That will probably not see them rise up the log, but they should be able to host a quarter-final, if not a semifinal. Big lock Brodie Retallick is due back on the field too, which will be a big boost.


NSW Waratahs

Current position: 5
Current points: 32
Remaining matches:
Hurricanes (h)
Highlanders (a)
Blues (h)
Possible maximum points: 47
Likely finish: 6

After an annus horribilis in 2021, the Waratahs are resurgent in 2022, and they have three critical games, including two at home, to make their run into the playoffs. If they win all three, then fair play to them, but any slip-ups could see the Reds overtake them.


Queensland Reds

Current position: 6
Current points: 31
Remaining matches:
Blues (a)
Moana Pasifika (h)
Crusaders (a)
Possible maximum points: 46
Likely finish: 7

The Reds have struggled of late without experienced first-five James O’Connor and now prop Taniela Tupou, so they will target the May 21 clash with Moana Pasifika. But they would do well to hold sixth – seventh would mean a probable trip to Canberra to play the Brumbies for the quarter-final.


Hurricanes

Current position: 7
Current points: 29
Remaining matches:
Waratahs (a)
Rebels (h)
Force (a)
Possible maximum points: 44
Likely finish: 5

It’s all ahead for the Hurricanes, having rediscovered their attacking mojo against the Fijian Drua last weekend in Wellington. They know that three wins to close should be enough to seal fifth position, which would likely mean a trip to play the Chiefs Hamilton in the playoffs. Three from three is doable, but it starts in Sydney this weekend.


Highlanders

Current position: 8
Current points: 17
Remaining matches:
Force (h)
Waratahs (h)
Rebels (a)
Possible maximum points: 32
Likely finish: 8

The Highlanders have been up and down this season, but are now in the box seat to qualify eighth. They probably need just 1-2 wins from their last three to do so and they will feel more than capable of doing that. Then they just have to win against the Blues in Auckland or the Brumbies in Canberra to reach the semi-finals…

 

Melbourne Rebels

Current position: 9
Current points: 15
Remaining matches:
Chiefs (h)
Hurricanes (a)
Highlanders (h)
Possible maximum points: 30
Likely finish: 10

The Rebels were thumped by the Blues last weekend and so are now reliant on the Highlanders faltering and them suddenly upsetting three Kiwi teams. The odds are lengthening on that scenario.


Western Force

Current position: 10
Current points: 14
Remaining matches:
Highlanders (a)
Chiefs (a)
Moana Pasifika (a)
Hurricanes (h)
Possible maximum points: 34 (game in hand)
Likely finish: 11

The Force will feel that, with a game in hand, they are an outside bet for the playoffs. We’ll know more after Friday night’s trip to Dunedin to play the Highlanders. But bear in mind they have a storm week in which they play the Chiefs and Moana Pasifika in the space of 72 hours. That might prove too tough for a march up the table.


Fijian Drua

Current position: 11
Current points: 7
Remaining matches:
Moana Pasifika (h)
Crusaders (a)
Chiefs (h)
Possible maximum points: 22
Likely finish: 12

I’m sure the Fijian Drua would rather have played Moana Pasifika in Suva this weekend. What an occasion that would have been! Instead, they host their fellow competition rookies in Sydney. The Drua will still be targeting this one, and will feel they can avoid the wooden spoon if they can secure a victory.


Moana Pasifika

Current position: 12
Current points: 6
Remaining matches:
Drua (a)
Reds (a)
Force (h)
Brumbies (h)
Possible maximum points: 26 (game in hand)
Likely finish: 9

Moana Pasifika have the goods to win at least two, if not three, of their last four matches. Having been hardened by rugby against the Kiwi sides, they can rocket up the table, though it won’t be enough for a rails run to the playoffs. They have caught a break, finally, with the Force game being moved to Mt Smart Stadium. But that is still a tough storm week of three games in nine days, their fourth such assignment in 2022 due to COVID disruptions.